Wednesday, November 01, 2006

And the winner is?

Predictions update**

Souder won with 59% of the vote in 2002 against an unknown; this year his opponent is known and only needs to get 12% of last year election voters. I would suggest Hayhurst rally all his opponents and ask them to have those who voted for them to give their vote to Hayhurst to pull this one off.

Hayhurst 34,000
Souder 30,000

District 15

Wyss is a legislator and not a meet and greet only type of guy and thus will win this one hands down.

Wyss 15000
Bynum 5000

Howell third time out should pay off in the republican influenced county, that is if his party truly supports him, if not GiaQuinta will win by default (name and did nohing to win this seat). Note interesting that two GiaQuinta are on the ballot, could the other well known GiaQuinta suggest to voters to vote for his brother?

Howell 7000
GiaQuinta 4000

Council District 1

City Council has called this one, the good ole boy needs this seat for consolidation.

James Ball (R) 7000
Maye L. Johnson (D) 3000

Council District 4
Calvert Miller (R)* 12,000
Richard Cline (D) 5000

Recorder

Summers is such a nice guy but won't win. Summers does not get the same type of exposure as McGauley who has switch position so much, you wonder is he just a floater,(did he not challenge Sandra Kennedy for a position) or does he just like seeing his name on the ballot.

John McGauley (R) 28,000
Herbert Summers (D) 20,000


Assessor

Love won on a fluke had she fought for the taypayers, plain and simply neither, so Lopshire will win.

Stacey Lopshire ( R) 28,000
Patricia Love (D)* 15,000

Sheriff

If Taviano can get Foster and Griffith supporters to back her, she can take this but for now Fries appointment will stand.

Kenneth Fries (R) 32000
Tina M. Taviano (D)28000
Paul Smith (I) 3000



Adams Township Assessor
Gaines-Newson is young and gutsy this race should be close, but I'm giving to Thomas.
Debbie Thomas (R) 4000
Nina Gaines-Newson (D) 2000

Adams Board (elect three)
If Morgan gets this seat this may help Gaines-Newson win.

Herbert Baatz (R) 3500
George A. Berghoff (R)* 3600
Frank Swartzwelder (R)* 2800
Johnnie Morgan (D)-4000

Jackson Township
Trustee/Assessor

Gloria E. Gerig (R)* 900
William L. Bowers (D) 700

Board (elect three)
Larry Baumert (R)* X
Joseph Gerig (R) X
Barry Steinman (R) X
Toby Rhymer (D)

Lafayette Township
Trustee/Assessor

Patrick Lee (R) X
Ellen D. Kasales (D)

Madison Board (elect three)
Charlotte J. Kaiser (R)* X
Scott Renninger (R) X
Neil S. Reynolds (R) X
Norbert E. Molthan (D)*

Perry Board (elect three)
John E. Bracht (R)* X
Duane Dickes (R)* X
Michael J. Messmann (R)* X
Barbara Brockhoff (D)

St. Joe Board (elect three)
Thomas Harris (R)* X
W. Kunkle (R)* X
Erica J. Taylor (R)* X
Barbara L. Blauvelt (D)
Jane E. Gastineau (D)
Norman Greenberg (D)

Wayne Township
Assessor

This is another race that will be close.
Tammi McKee (R) 6000
Beverly J. Zuber (D) 7000

Trustee

This is another race that will be close.

Matthew P. Schomburg (R)* 6000
Richard Stevenson (D) 7000
Michael A. Reef (W)


This race has a lot of known candidates, I think it would be nice for Armstrong to sit it out, but because of name recognization I select him to be winner taking out Parra. I like Parra, and she has a lot of clout with the Latino population. Someone need to find a place for her on a solid ticket.

Wayne Board (elect three)
Robert A. Armstrong (R)X
Tamila Kelty (R)*
Jerry Zuber (R) X
Anthony Henry (D)
Maria M. Parra (D)
Patricia Turner (D)X

** numbers subject to change before election day.

5 comments:

  1. Nice analysis. The only one I truly question is the Howell/ Giaquinta race. That is a heavily democratic district on the south side of fort wayne. Kevin hasn't done anything different than he had in his previous attempts. He would have to have run a much more visible and dynamic campaign to cause a tidal shift of the size you predicted.

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  2. Anonymous11/03/2006

    McGauley isnt afloater. The other time he ran was the city version of this position. He had intended to run for it again next year but had been approached to run by Pat Crick, the outgoing incumbent Recorder.

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  3. Anonymous11/04/2006

    If the republican turn out to keep Hayhurst from taking this seat, Howell should benefit..we'll see.

    ReplyDelete
  4. If I were a gambler I would make you a bet. But I'm not so I'll let you off the hook.

    Should you be right and Kevin wins I will make a big post on how you outdid me in this race.

    ReplyDelete